The Morning After

[bjarvis]

This morning is the day after the US elections. I voted for Hillary; she lost fairly, and Donald Trump won. We can argue about voter suppression attempts, gerrymandering of districts, and the validity or not of the electoral college but in the end, Trump is the president-elect and the Republicans have control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

I'm disappointed my prefered slate of candidates did not win, but I've been voting for 30 years in various contests and am accustomed to winning some and losing others. That's not a problem.

For the first time, however, I am genuinely fearful of the outcome of an election. Never before has someone so blatantly campaigned on demonizing portions of the population for not being the correct religion, for not being white enough, for not being personally loyal enough, for not being straight enough, for not being male enough --and won. And never has someone campaigned with plans with of how he's going to deal with those people who do not meet his standards --and won. I don't remember another candidate for the presidency who bragged about being a sexual predator --and won. The man endorsed by the KKK has won the most important election in the most powerful nation on the planet.

And now this man will be in the White House, backed & protected by the power of the executive branch of the US federal government. The House and Senate are of his own party and will be only too happy to fulfill his whims --he did win an election so he has the mandate-- and the Supreme Court will soon be stacked with like-minded men rubber stamped by his friends in the Senate. There will be no checks & balances.

I fear what will happen to my friends & relatives on disability or retired with Social Security, those who get their medical care via Medicare or via the Affordable Care Act, and for my LGBT friends whose marriages are a specific target of the new administration. My own employment prospects may go very dark if various trade agreements are dissolved and trade wars are encouraged. My retirement plans are on indefinite hold until we see whether a recession results, and whether my savings will survive.

Until today, I had no particular reason to fear the future. Now I do.

Comments

[mrdreamjeans.livejournal.com]

I share your fears ...

[billeyler.livejournal.com]

Well said. Same here.

[bitterlawngnome.livejournal.com]

I don't think they will be happy to fulfil his whims. In fact I think he will be very quickly sidelined in order that Pence can implement the agenda of the establishment republicans.

[bjarvis.livejournal.com]

I don't know that they will. Yes, they'll get annoyed at Trump from time to time, some permanently, but if they impeach him, they'll have to overcome their own resistance to removing a man who won an electoral mandate campaigning on some batshit crazy stuff. In addition, impeaching him would require admitting to the world that they, the Republican party, was wrong to have nominated him in the first place which risks offending Trump's fan base and hurting the sitting congresscritters in the next elections.

Apart from this, while Mike Spence is more liked as a generally more conventional establishment figure, he's in no position (yet) to command the support of either the electoral base or even the congressional caucus. I doubt impeachment is a realistic threat until the GOP is sure that Spence is better than his predecessor. That may change in time, but he's got a way to go.

[bitterlawngnome.livejournal.com]

I don't think impeachment. There are numerous other possibilities, from bribery to "illness". In fact I bet they could make great hay from a martyr.

[bjarvis.livejournal.com]

Even less likely: Trump's ego would never allow himself to be voluntarily sidelined. His departure will come from something internal to himself (boredom, fit of pique, death in office) or external to the GOP (general election, impeachment in the house, weight of external lawsuits). Pressure from party insiders would only cause him to entrench his position, even if it ran counter to his longterm preferences.

One scenario I could envision is him being in over his head and single digits in the polls, deciding to voluntarily retire "for the good of the party" in exchange for a broad pardon to wipe out all prior legal claims, lawsuits, etc.. This could happen before the midterm elections in two years. More likely however is this scenario playing out at the end of his first term when he declares victoriously that all of his goals & promises were met and therefore would not run for a second term (and in exchange for a full pardon).

[bitterlawngnome.livejournal.com]

Hah. I'm not talking about anything voluntary. Bribery = blackmail. Illness can be caused. Etc.

Anyway this is all just speculation, I have no evidence. Just a hunch based on how these things have happened elsewhere in the past.

[rsc.livejournal.com]

I think it's unlikely. During this election season, it looked like the Republican Party was coming apart at the seams, but with the result we got I think they'll revel in their power, and not go out of their way to make trouble for themselves.

[rsc.livejournal.com]

Pence would not be an improvement.

I don't think existing same-sex marriages are in danger. The can of worms involved in dissolving long-standing legal marriages is one I think even an ultra-right Supreme Court would be reluctant to open.

Also, remember that the Republicans do not have 60 votes in the Senate, so there will be some pressure against the appointment of completely insane justices.